Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the relatively...

Despite challenges with contracting liquidity, poor credit quality and global recessionary trends, junk bonds have still emerged as one of the best-performing fixed-income asset classes of 2023. It...

The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the Hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight...

Those who read our Daily and follow us on the media know that we talk a lot about risk gauges. The big focus for me personally is the relationship between the S&P 500 and the long bonds...

If you think about what the best-performing areas of fixed income are in 2023, you might land on junk bonds or maybe even senior loans. In reality, the biggest winner has been local currency emerging...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by CapitalSpectator.com for May...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months. This all comes after a...

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually, the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity yields...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of proxy ETFs. The...

We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes. Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...