Karachi 100 (KSE)

Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (July 14, 2023). The session closing below 45,350 with a Bearish Engulfing formation suggests that the bulls, who were not taking a breather, are now having exhaustion. Moreover, the price action of previous session is suggesting that index is having congestion at the 78.6% retracement from the high of April 2022 & low of Jan 2023 which suggests that not only a simple ABCD Pattern is about to be competed, a much complex pattern called the 3 Drives Pattern or Double ABCD Pattern is also in the making and according to the said pattern the last bullish leg lies at 45,550 – 45,780 range. RSI in extremely overbought zone with negative divergence is another indicator that does not allow fresh buying in index drivers. On The Downside…. The initial support is at 45,180 followed by 44,700. However, breach of 44,100 can convert profit taking into fresh selling with 43,450 as next exposed level.

The Session Wrap Up!!! After 5 Consecutive Sessions Of Gains Bulls Took A Breather – Index Corrected By 247 Points.... After a winning streak of 3 session, the bulls took a breather as index witnessed first negative session since July 8 2023. During the session, the index started with an upper gap and reached to as high as 45,970 and then it witnessed profit taking pullback till 45,255 before closing the session at 45,266 with a correction of 247 Points, the first negative closing since July 8 2023. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 225.21 Million which is up by 8% from previous session since the session ended with a  Bearish Engulfing pattern, the increase in volumes indicates distribution.

If KSE100 Index Tops At 45600 45800, The Reversal Can Be Till 36800 36200 By September- December 2023..... However Anything Till 46800 47200 Will Be Stretching The Downside Till 34800 To 28k

Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (July 13, 2023) As discussed in previous report, the upside is expanded to the range of 45,750 - 45,800 for the coming session, followed by 46,300 – 46,800. Having said that, it is more important to note index is already in Hyper Move, not just on Weekly Terms but on Monthly Terms and that Hyper Move suggests that the bubble formation is reaching its fullest level, due to which further aggression on point scoring will be resulting in an equally aggressive selling pressure. RSI in extremely overbought zone with negative divergence is another indicator that does not allow fresh buying in index drivers. Last but not the least, the index has not given any monthly closing above 45,550, despite many attempts, since October 2021 or as many as 21 Months. All these indicators are pointing towards formation of a strong hard top that cannot just trigger aggressive profit taking, but fresh selling too.

The Session Wrap Up!!!  Another Day With Another Landmark Achievement For The Aggressive Bulls – Index Soared By 359 Points.... It was yet another session with excitement, where the bulls did not just start the session with an upper gap but achieved a new landmark of closing the session above 45,500 for the first time since April 22 2022. During the session the index started at 45,326 and without going into negative territory it posted a high of 45,582 before closing the day at 45,514 with a net gain of 359 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 206.7 Million, which is down by 16.7% from previous session and suggests that there was pause from aggressive buyers and that could be due to overheated conditions.

Yaseen Yaseen

waqas

I had posted this multi-month developing bull flag on 15 Aug 2022 (https://invst.ly/10mx3d). This bullish rally needs to break the resistance at ~50k. If that happens, measured upside is ~68k. There may still be a retest of the bull flag channel at ~40k but that should be strong buy the dip opportunity for target 68k and above. This setup is void if KSE goes below 38k. I also reiterate (which is proving correct now): jitna Imran neechay jaye gaa...Pakistan uper aaye gaa. Pakistan's progress is now inversely correlated with IK's

Closing above 44,950 has expanded the upside with 45,480 as first and then 45,800 for the coming session. Having said that, it is more important to note index is already in Hyper Move, not just on Weekly Terms but on Monthly Terms and that Hyper Move suggests that further aggression on point scoring will be resulting in an equally aggressive selling pressure. Moreover, the index is reaching 78.6% retracement from the high of April 2022 & low of Jan 2023 which suggests that not only a simple ABCD Pattern is about to be competed, a much complex pattern called the 3 Drives Pattern or Double ABCD Pattern is also in the making and according to the said pattern the last bullish leg lies at 45,550 – 45,780 range. RSI in extremely overbought zone with negative divergence is another indicator that does not allow fresh buying in index drivers. . On The Downside…. The support is seen at 44,880, followed by 44,150.

The Session Wrap Up!!! Aggressively Crazy Bulls Achieved Another Milestone – Index Crossed 45K For The First Time Since May 2022.... The aggressively crazy bulls kept on marching on the charts, as not only the index had yet another gapped opening but the closing was at 45K too. During the session, the index kicked off the session with a gapped opening at 44,691 and then reached to as high as 45,250 before closing the session at 45,155 with a massive gain of 570 Points and above 45K for the first time since May 2022. Volume from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 248 Million, which is not just up by 35.5% from previous session but is the highest intra-day total since August 2022 and indicates that aggressive buyers are in field.